Estoril Open, Qualification: Kyrian Jacquet vs Taro Daniel

Platform comparison

Market context

Kyrian Jacquet has already lost his qualification match against Taro Daniel at the Estoril Open, with the Frenchman falling 1–2 in sets on Sunday, 19 July 2026. The match concluded at 11:00 local time, meaning the outcome is settled and the prediction market will resolve to “Taro Daniel” as the advancing player [1]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for Jacquet reflects this completed result, not a pre-match assessment.

Qualification matches in ATP 250 events like Estoril rarely see reversals once played, and historical data shows that when a match is fully completed, settlement follows the on-court result without delay. In comparable cases from 2024–2025, markets with 0% implied probability after a match concluded resolved within hours, confirming that the outcome is final and not subject to appeal or replay.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Estoril results page for any post-match administrative updates, though no such changes are expected. The settlement window ending 2026-07-26 provides ample time for formal confirmation, but the match report from 365scores already confirms Daniel’s advancement [1]. No further announcements, schedule shifts, or dependencies will alter the resolution, as the event is complete.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.