Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Andrea Guerrieri and Max Alcala Gurri are set to meet in the Cervia Challenger semi-final, with live listings showing the match on 22 May and no prior head-to-head between them. The market is still pricing 0% YES, but the fixture itself is active rather than hypothetical, so the immediate question is whether it is played to completion within the settlement window or slips into a delayed or interrupted outcome.

On the tennis side, the available previews lean towards Guerrieri, with Tennis Tonic and other listing sites naming him the favourite and quoting Guerrieri at around 1.48 against 2.43 for Alcala Gurri. That matters because the market resolves on the match winner advancing, not on set score, and Guerrieri’s edge is being framed as modest rather than dominant. In similar lower-level Challenger semis, price moves are often driven more by court conditions and current form than by rankings alone.

The main catalysts now are the official order of play, any late court reassignment, and whether either player is affected by scheduling from the previous round. Flashscore and Sofascore are both carrying the fixture as live for 22 May, which suggests the event is expected to go ahead on time. Traders should also watch for retirement or suspension risk, because if the match starts but is not completed, the settlement depends on who advances rather than who was leading when play stopped.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.