Granby: Daniil Glinka vs Philip Sekulic

Platform comparison

Market context

The Granby Challenger match between Daniil Glinka and Philip Sekulic, originally slated for 15 July, was played on 16 July at Court 4, with Philip Sekulic winning the encounter 1–1 in sets before advancing[4][5]. The prediction market now carries a 0% implied probability for Glinka advancing, reflecting the completed result where Sekulic secured the victory[6][7].

Historically, prediction markets that retain open settlement windows after a match concludes with a decisive winner typically resolve to the advancing player, rendering the opposing side’s probability effectively zero; comparable ATP Challenger cases show no retroactive 50–50 splits once a winner is confirmed post-match. The 0% YES probability aligns with this precedent, as Sekulic’s advancement is already recorded in live scores and head-to-head databases[1][6].

Traders should monitor the official tournament draw update for Granby to confirm Sekulic’s next-round opponent and any potential withdrawal notices, as these announcements would finalise the market’s resolution path. No further match delays are expected given the 24-hour completion window has passed, and the settlement deadline of 22 July 2026 remains unchanged[2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Granby: Daniil Glinka vs Philip Sekulic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.