San Marino: Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro

Platform comparison

Market context

Vilius Gaubas and Thiago Monteiro are still listed for the San Marino quarterfinal slot, and the live market is pricing a completed Monteiro advance as the overwhelmingly likely outcome. The key change in the last 24-48 hours is simply that the matchup remains on the board with no sign of a cancellation or a replacement winner, so the 100% YES price is reflecting execution risk more than an active coin flip.[1][11]

The historical frame is clear: Monteiro has won both previous meetings, including a three-set Bastad match in July 2025 and a straight-sets win at Bad Waltersdorf in 2024.[2][5][7] Across those meetings, Monteiro has generally been the stronger server and returner in the decisive moments, and head-to-head summaries on multiple tennis databases also show a 2-0 edge in matches and 4-1 in sets.[2][6][15] That said, Gaubas has already taken sets from Monteiro in their more recent encounter, so the head-to-head favours Monteiro without implying routine dominance.[2][5]

For traders, the near-term catalysts are straightforward: whether the match actually begins, whether it is completed within the settlement window, and whether any late court-order or scheduling change pushes it beyond the seven-day cutoff.[11] San Marino event pages and live-score listings should confirm the official state of play first, while ATP and score providers will matter most if the match is suspended, postponed, or re-seeded later in the draw.[1][9][11] If play starts and a winner is eventually recorded, the market resolves to that advancing player; if not, the fallback is 50-50 under the stated rules.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.