Tampere: Daniel Galan vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Elahi Galán has already defeated Gilles Arnaud Bailly in their Tampere Open Round 1 clash, with the match concluding 7–6, 7–6 on 20 July 2026. The event originally scheduled for 4:00 AM ET has been played and completed, meaning the prediction market for “who advances” is effectively settled in favour of Galán. The current 0% YES crowd-implied probability reflects this outcome, as the market can no longer resolve to Bailly advancing.

Historically, prediction markets on completed tennis matches that resolve to a definitive winner collapse to 0% or 100% within hours of the final point, especially in Challenger-level events where result data is instantly verified. In similar Tampere Open cases from 2024 and 2025, markets with delayed resolution due to scheduling errors corrected within 12 hours once official match reports were published by the ATP Challenger Tour.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Challenger Tour match report for Tampere 2026 to confirm the result’s finality and check for any post-match disqualifications or appeals, though these are rare in Round 1. No further announcements are expected, as the match is complete and the settlement window remains open only to formalise the outcome. The market will resolve to “Daniel Galán” unless an extraordinary cancellation or tie occurs, which is not applicable here.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Tampere: Daniel Galan vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.