Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Tommaso Compagnucci

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Buvaysar Gadamauri and Tommaso Compagnucci were due to meet in the Cervia Challenger semi-final on Friday, with live listings and sportsbook feeds pointing to a same-day start rather than a delayed or abandoned fixture. The market is already priced at 100% for Gadamauri, but the practical question is whether the match is completed within the settlement window and whether the favourite converts that edge into an advance on clay.

The main form reference is their only previous meeting, which Gadamauri won in straight sets, 6-2 6-4, on clay in 2022. That head-to-head is small, but it does at least align surface and matchup type: a slower court and a player who has already handled Compagnucci before. Recent pricing also leans his way, with one market listing Gadamauri around 1.40 and Compagnucci about 2.75, implying a clear favourite rather than a coin flip.

For traders, the key catalysts are simple: confirmation the semi-final is played on schedule, any change to the order of play in Cervia, and whether either player has picked up a fitness issue after the quarter-finals. ATP and sportsbook live pages were already active on the match, which suggests the main risk is not identification of the fixture but whether play starts and finishes inside the seven-day settlement period. If the match is abandoned after starting, the market rules could still matter more than the pre-match price.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Tommaso Compagnucci on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.