Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Viktor Durasovic vs Andrea Guerrieri

Platform comparison

Market context

Andrea Guerrieri’s round-of-16 match with Viktor Durasovic was live on Court 12 in Grodzisk Mazowiecki, with Guerrieri listed around ATP No. 213 and Durasovic around No. 475, and the Italian was the clear pre-match favourite in bookmaker and preview data.[1][6][10][16] Live score pages show the contest had already begun, so the market’s 0% YES reading is not a view on who is better, but a reflection of a position that has not yet been resolved into a winner.[3][8]

That framing matters because the two players had no recorded head-to-head at this event, leaving current pricing to lean mainly on ranking gap, recent form and surface fit rather than any prior matchup pattern.[2][6][9] Guerrieri was also being backed to win in straight sets by several preview pages, while Durasovic came in after a three-set comeback in the previous round, which can complicate short-term read-throughs from raw rank alone.[6][7][11]

For traders, the main catalyst is simply whether the match reaches a completed result before the settlement window closes, since an abandonment, cancellation or delay beyond seven days would force the market to 50-50 under the rules. The practical watchpoints are court updates, score feeds and any official tournament schedule changes, especially because Challenger events can slip if earlier matches run long or weather interrupts play.[1][3][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Viktor Durasovic vs Andrea Guerrieri across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.