Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic

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Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Aleksandar Vukic in the opening rounds of Roland Garros in late May 2026, with the match originally scheduled for 5:00 AM ET on 24 May. The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally strong conviction in Collignon's superiority or, more likely, sparse trading volume in a lower-profile early-round matchup. Both players occupy the lower tiers of professional tennis rankings, making this a qualifier-or-main-draw encounter where recent form and surface adaptation carry outsized weight.

Collignon, a Belgian player, has historically struggled to maintain consistent ATP presence, whilst Vukic, an Australian, has shown marginal improvement in recent seasons but remains outside the top 100. On clay courts specifically, neither player commands a notable record. The market's certainty is unusual given the relative anonymity of both competitors and the absence of recent head-to-head data. Historical precedent suggests early-round matches between unranked or low-ranked players often see significant probability shifts once draw confirmation and pre-match form updates emerge.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any late withdrawals or schedule adjustments through late May. Injury announcements or late qualifying results could shift the matchup entirely. The settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing seven days beyond the original date—sufficient buffer for weather delays common at Roland Garros, though the early morning slot reduces likelihood of significant postponement. Fitness updates from either player's camp in the 48 hours before play represent the primary catalyst for probability movement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.