Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon, ranked 42, takes on qualifier Timofey Skatov, ranked 163, in the Round of 32 at the ATP Swiss Open Gstaad on clay today. The 93% crowd-implied probability for Collignon reflects his dominant recent form, having won 12 of his last 15 matches, alongside a significant ranking gap that historically suppresses upset likelihood in first-round clay encounters.

Historical data from similar ATP Gstaad first-round matchups shows that players ranked over 100 spots below their opponent win fewer than 8% of matches on clay, mirroring the current pricing. Comparable cases where a qualifier faced a top-50 player on home clay rarely deviate from the implied probability, as surface familiarity and ranking disparity compound to create a high-confidence outcome for the higher-ranked entrant.

Traders should monitor the live start time at 11:20 UTC on Court 1, as any delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution. Key catalysts include Collignon’s service efficiency, which has been consistent, and Skatov’s 100% service record in qualifying, though his limited top-level experience on clay remains a vulnerability. No major injury announcements have surfaced since the draw, but weather conditions in Gstaad could impact play if rain interrupts the scheduled window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.