Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Casper Ruud is now listed to play Raphael Collignon in Geneva, with the ATP draw already under way and the clay-court event entering its second-round phase. The market’s 0% Yes price reflects the shape of the matchup rather than any confirmed off-court issue: Ruud is a proven clay specialist and was drawn into a section that has already thinned out as other seeds fell early, while Collignon came through a tougher route to reach this stage.

Comparable ATP 250 clay matches with a clear ranking gap usually settle close to the favourite’s standard hold percentage unless there is an injury or a late withdrawal. Ruud’s profile is especially relevant in Geneva, where the conditions are slow enough to reward heavy topspin and baseline control. Collignon’s route into the round gives him match sharpness, but it does not change the underlying fact that the market is pricing a routine Ruud advance, not a coin flip.

The key traders’ watchpoint is whether the match remains on schedule and whether either player is flagged by the tournament desk before play. ATP’s Geneva coverage has already shown the draw moving through the early rounds, and Reuters-style tournament reports around this stage typically focus on withdrawals, schedule reshuffles and any medical time-outs from the previous day. If the match is delayed, shortened or interrupted by weather, the settlement terms matter: a no-contest or abandonment without a winner would push the market to 50-50, while any completed result settles on the player who advances.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.