National Bank Open: Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin

Platform comparison

Market context

The market has shifted towards **Raphael Collignon** after the pair’s recent grass-court meeting, where he beat Alexei Popyrin 6-4, 6-2 at Halle in June. That head-to-head is still the cleanest live reference point, because it is the only completed tour meeting listed across the current comparison pages and it favours Collignon on the surface most relevant to a quick-turn summer event.[2][11]

There is also a wider form split underpinning the 61% crowd price. Collignon’s 2026 results are materially stronger in the available trackers, with one source showing him at 36-14 this season and another putting his last-52-weeks win rate at 66.7%, while Popyrin is shown at 10-19 for the year and 40.5% over the past 52 weeks.[4][1] The broader head-to-head pages also show Collignon ahead in the only match that has been played, so the market is leaning on current form plus the direct matchup rather than ranking alone.[2][13]

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the draw and order of play stay intact, because tennis markets at Masters-level events can move fast if scheduling changes, withdrawals or a walkover alter the path to the court. Popyrin is described in one preview as a former Canadian Open champion and a defender of quarter-final points, which raises the stakes if he looks physically compromised or if the event’s section is reshuffled, while Collignon’s recent win over him at Halle remains the main benchmark if both are named to start.[4][15] If no match is actually played, or if it drifts beyond the settlement window without a winner, the contract falls back to a 50-50 resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.