National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Thiago Agustin Tirante has already been beaten in the National Bank Open first round, with Duncan Chan losing 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(3) at IGA Stadium after qualifying into the main draw, according to the latest match report. That means the market’s 0% crowd-implied chance of a Chan advance has been overtaken by the on-court result, and the practical read is now whether the event has settled cleanly or is still waiting on official confirmation. [15]

Before play, this was a classic rank-gap matchup: Tirante was around ATP No. 64, while Chan was around No. 601 as a qualifier, and pre-match listings consistently had Tirante as the clear favourite. Tennis Temple and Tennis.com both showed Tirante well ahead in projected win probability, while there was no head-to-head record to lean on, which is typical for an opening-round Masters 1000 meeting between a lower-ranked home qualifier and a seeded-level player. [1][2][4]

For traders, the key catalyst now is the tournament’s official result feed and whether the market has been updated to reflect a completed match, because settlement depends on a confirmed winner or, failing that, cancellation/delay rules. If there is any discrepancy between live listings and final draw records, the decisive factor will be the formal match status from the event rather than pre-match schedules, which had the contest set for 3 August in Montreal. [3][7][9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.