Canadian Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Hamad Medjedovic

Platform comparison

Market context

The last 24–48 hours have left Hamad Medjedovic as the clear pre-match side in the wider market, with bookmaker pricing clustering around the mid-1.5s and several modelled previews landing in the high-50s to low-60s for Medjedovic. That sits awkwardly beside this market’s current crowd-implied 100% YES, which looks more like a stale or one-sided book than a live read of the matchup.

Historically, this sort of gap matters because ATP first-round markets can swing sharply on late withdrawals, schedule changes, or mispriced listings, especially when the event page and sportsbook feeds do not fully agree on timing. Public odds trackers have shown Medjedovic favoured over Cerundolo, while some prediction pages still reflect an older, more bullish view on Cerundolo, so the main lesson is that the market is currently carrying more certainty than the pre-match pricing elsewhere supports.[1][4][12][17]

The key catalysts now are simple: whether the Canadian Open schedule holds, whether the match is actually played inside the seven-day settlement window, and whether either player is removed from the order of play before first ball. One sportsbook listing has the match set for 4 August at 1:20pm ET, which is already a useful reference point for any last-minute reshuffle; if there is a cancellation, delay, or incomplete match under the market rules, the outcome can still settle 50-50 rather than on court result alone.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.