Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Alexander Bublik and Edas Butvilas are still slated for Geneva’s round of 16, but the market is now effectively pricing a no-play outcome, with the crowd showing 0% YES. That makes the immediate question less about a winner on court and more about whether the fixture actually goes ahead before the settlement window closes, especially as the match was scheduled for the middle of the day in Geneva and the live status remained dependent on the tournament order of play.

On form and profile, Bublik remains the clear class side: he is the ATP top-10 player, while Butvilas came through qualifying and has just one main-draw win in Geneva, a straight-sets upset over Lorenzo Sonego. That result is the closest recent comparator, but it does not materially narrow the gap here; Bublik has been installed as a heavy favourite in pre-match pricing, and the small sample from Butvilas’s clay record is still that of a lower-ranked outsider against established tour opposition.

The main catalysts are logistical rather than tactical. Traders should watch for official order-of-play updates, any change to the centre-court schedule, and whether the match starts before the settlement deadline. Sofascore listed the match as due around 18:00 UTC on 20 May, while preview coverage from Bleacher Nation framed Bublik as roughly a three-to-one favourite on the clay. If there is a delay, walkover, retirement or cancellation, that directly affects whether the market resolves to a player or to 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.