National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann

Platform comparison

Market context

The Bonzi-Hanfmann first-round match in Montréal was scheduled for the night of 2 August, and live listings still place it on an outdoor hard court with no head-to-head history between the pair.[1][3][15] That matters for a market sitting at a 0% YES price: there is no obvious in-match data point to anchor a correction, so the main question is whether the match was actually played and completed within the settlement window.[1][3]

The comparison most traders will lean on is form rather than prior meetings. Hanfmann is listed higher in the ATP rankings on current match pages and has the stronger recent hard-court and last-52-weeks record in the aggregated stats, while Bonzi’s recent run has been less stable.[1][4][7] Comparable preview pages also frame Hanfmann as the favourite, with implied match prices around 12 on Flashscore and roughly two-thirds win probability on another stats site, which is consistent with the market’s near-zero belief that Bonzi advances.[6][7]

For the next 24-48 hours, the key catalysts are straightforward: official ATP/venue status updates, whether the match is shifted on court or time, and whether any suspension or abandonment forces a continuation later in the week.[3][15] Because the settlement rule only pays out a winner if one player advances, a retirement or walkover would still resolve the market, whereas a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days would push it to 50-50.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.