Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer

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Market context

The latest shift is that this qualifying match is effectively unresolved in market terms, with the crowd still pricing a 0% yes outcome despite both players being on the Wimbledon qualifying schedule and the contest originally set for 22 June. If the match is not played, or drifts beyond the seven-day settlement window without a winner, the market would flip to a 50-50 resolution rather than a player outcome.

Recent comparables point towards a narrow, fast-moving price rather than a lopsided one. Basilashvili is listed around ATP No. 112–118 in the live market context, while Ymer is shown near No. 185, and betting screens have Basilashvili as the shorter-priced favourite at roughly 1.6 against Ymer at about 2.48. The pair have also already met in qualifying this season, with Ymer winning their Doha match after Basilashvili retired, which is a useful reminder that head-to-head records here are thin and can be distorted by retirement rather than a clean finish. [1][4][5][8]

For traders, the key watchpoints are the Wimbledon order of play, any court reassignments, and whether the match is first delayed and then rescheduled inside the settlement period. The most market-relevant catalyst is simple confirmation that play starts, because a no-show or pre-match cancellation would change the settlement logic immediately. If the fixture does go ahead, live completion matters less than whether the match is officially abandoned or left unfinished for more than seven days. [2][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.