Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Dino Prizmic

Platform comparison

Market context

Felix Auger-Aliassime has already secured his place in the second round of Wimbledon 2026, defeating Aleksandr Shevchenko in straight sets on Monday, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4[1][2]. This means the market titled "Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Dino Prizmic" is effectively settled before the scheduled date of 1 July 2026, as the match against Prizmic will not occur. The 100% YES probability reflects the certainty that Auger-Aliassime has advanced, rendering the contest against Prizmic moot.

Historically, Auger-Aliassime struggled at Wimbledon’s first round, losing three of his last four opening matches in 2022, 2023, and 2024[4]. His current straight-sets victory marks a significant turnaround, breaking a pattern of early exits and validating his third-seed status. Comparable cases show that when a top seed overcomes a weak opener decisively, the probability of advancing further in the tournament rises sharply, often approaching certainty.

Traders should monitor official Wimbledon schedules and any announcements regarding Prizmic’s participation, though his match is now irrelevant due to Auger-Aliassime’s advancement[3]. No further action is required on this market, as the outcome is already determined. The settlement window ending 2026-07-08 will confirm the resolution, but the result is unambiguous. Auger-Aliassime’s clinical performance, described as "composed and in full control"[2], underscores the inevitability of the market’s resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.