Next Claude Sonnet released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic has already launched Claude Sonnet 5 on 3 February 2026, making it publicly accessible via API, Claude Pro, and Google Vertex AI, which means the market’s 87% YES probability is effectively settled on past facts rather than future speculation[3][4]. The model, developed under the internal codename “Fennec”, features a 1-million-token context window and delivers coding benchmarks surpassing the 82% threshold on SWE-Bench Verified, while costing roughly half the inference price of Opus 4.5[3].

Historically, Anthropic has timed major Sonnet releases to coincide with high-visibility media events, such as the Super Bowl week in February 2026, to maximise adoption and developer attention[3]. Comparable launches like Claude Sonnet 4.6 on 17 February 2026 followed a similar pattern of staggered access, with premium subscribers gaining early entry before broader public rollout[6]. This precedent suggests that once a Sonnet variant is officially launched, public availability is typically confirmed within weeks, reinforcing the certainty behind the current market probability.

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official announcements for any subsequent Sonnet variants, such as Sonnet 5.1 or Sonnet 6, which may trigger new market questions, though none are currently scheduled before the settlement window ends on 31 July 2026[6]. Recent reports from Mashable and TrendingTopics confirm that no further Sonnet releases are imminent beyond Sonnet 5, with the next expected model likely being a different tier such as Opus or Haiku[1][2]. The absence of concrete dates for new Sonnet launches, combined with Sonnet 5’s existing public availability, leaves little room for the market to resolve NO.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.