GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI’s last clear signalling shifted the market away from a 2025 launch: the model long discussed as GPT-6 appeared in April 2026 as **GPT-5.5** instead of a new numbered generation, while public trackers still note that no architecture paper, pricing, or launch date has been published for a true GPT-6.[1][10][14] That matters for this market because a 0% crowd price is effectively saying there is no visible path to a public GPT-6 release before the 2025 deadline, and the latest public evidence has not contradicted that view.[1][14]

Historically, OpenAI’s naming and rollout pattern has not followed a fixed calendar. GPT-5 arrived in August 2025, then the next major public step was a family update in April 2026 that stayed inside the GPT-5 label rather than advancing to GPT-6, which suggests OpenAI can defer a generational jump even when shipping substantial capability gains.[10][16] Public commentary in late 2025 also explicitly said GPT-6 would not ship that year, reinforcing the idea that the company was prioritising intermediate releases and staged deployment over a fast numbered sequel.[4][12]

For traders, the key catalysts are any OpenAI blog post, release notes entry, or Help Centre update that names **GPT-6** and confirms broad access, plus any product-launch event that moves from private testing to public sign-up.[16][20] Watch for wording that distinguishes a closed preview from general availability, because this market requires public access, not an enterprise-only or invite-only beta. The most relevant near-term signal would be an official announcement that a newly named model is open through ChatGPT or the API to the general public; absent that, the settlement clock keeps working against a Yes outcome.[1][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews GPT-6 released by…? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.