Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not announced a model called Claude Mythos as of late 2024, and the 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any public roadmap or naming convention suggesting such a release before June 2026. The company's current product line—Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus—follows a distinct naming scheme, with no indication that "Mythos" represents a planned tier or generation. The settlement window closes in eighteen months, leaving a narrow window for either an announcement or a surprise launch.

Historical precedent from other frontier labs shows naming conventions rarely shift without explicit communication. OpenAI telegraphed GPT-4 Turbo months before release; Anthropic similarly announced Claude 3 family models well in advance. When labs do introduce new naming schemes, they typically signal intent through investor calls, research papers, or blog posts rather than surprise deployments. The absence of any Mythos reference in Anthropic's public statements, including recent funding announcements and model releases, suggests either the name does not exist in internal planning or remains confidential.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's quarterly announcements, research publications, and any new funding rounds through mid-2026, as these forums typically precede major model releases. Recent reports on Anthropic's scaling efforts and constitutional AI research may hint at architectural shifts that could warrant new nomenclature, though "Mythos" specifically has not surfaced in technical literature or investor communications. The 0% probability may shift only if Anthropic explicitly names a forthcoming model or describes a "Mythos-class" architecture in official channels.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released on…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.