How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained after the March–April security shock, with commercial transits still far below pre-war levels. IMF PortWatch data and shipping reports have continued to show a depressed flow pattern, while USNI noted on 1 May that commercial transits were at their lowest since the first days of the offensive. That matters for the week of 11–17 May because the market is not asking whether the strait was open in principle, but how many counted calls actually cleared the chokepoint under a still-fragile operating environment.

The comparison set is stark: pre-conflict traffic was roughly 138 vessels a day, yet by April the route had seen sharp declines, vessels anchoring outside the strait, and repeated reports of carriers delaying or diverting. CSIS said daily transits remained well below normal even after Tehran signalled a reopening, while UANI’s 11 May update pointed to persistent congestion and displaced tonnage. A 1% yes price implies the market expects a very low count, but history suggests the key uncertainty is not a complete shutdown so much as intermittent, selectively permitted traffic.

The main catalysts are any new Iranian maritime announcements, changes in escort or routing practice through the Northern Corridor, and whether large energy cargoes resume on published schedules. Traders should watch for fresh IMF PortWatch counts, tanker AIS behaviour, and carrier statements from Gulf operators, since the data can move sharply if a few loaded tankers or LNG carriers are cleared in quick succession. A relapse in threats or a renewed restriction on allied vessels would likely keep the weekly total suppressed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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