STRC hits $100 by…

Platform comparison

Market context

STRC has spent the past day reacting to fresh commentary from Strategy management, which again framed **$99–$100** as the company’s objective for the preferred stock.[1][3] That matters because this market resolves on a *single* TradingView one-minute candle high at or above **$100**, so the path is less about closing levels and more about any intraday spike reaching the threshold before year-end.[19]

The recent backdrop still looks familiar: STRC has repeatedly traded below the target for long stretches, with one market note saying it had not printed at or above $100 for over a trailing month, even though its lifetime high reached **$100.42**.[7] That is why the current **0% YES** view is not unusual for a barrier-style event on a stock that has hovered in the low- to mid-$90s, but it also shows the trigger is not impossible; a brief squeeze or gap move can satisfy the rule even if the level does not hold.[5][7]

For catalysts, traders should watch for any further Strategy announcements, capital-allocation updates, or commentary around the preferred stock’s dividend policy, because recent coverage linked STRC’s move to management’s stated goal and shifting expectations on the dividend path.[1][2][3] Bitcoin price action remains a second-order driver through Strategy’s balance-sheet narrative, and recent reports tied STRC sentiment to a larger cash cushion and steadier Bitcoin pricing.[4] A more important practical point is timing: the market can settle on any one-minute candle high through **31 December 2026**, so isolated volatility around company news or broader crypto moves matters more than end-of-day levels.[19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.