Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by 2026?

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Market context

President Trump's announced blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initiated on 12 April 2026, remains in effect with no official statements from the administration, Pentagon, or State Department indicating plans for reversal within the next two months. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any public signals suggesting imminent de-escalation, though markets this far from resolution dates often price in tail-risk scenarios that haven't yet materialised.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The 1973 Arab oil embargo lasted five months before lifting, whilst the 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq War saw repeated threats to Hormuz traffic without sustained blockade implementation. More recent comparisons—the 2019 tanker attacks and 2022 Russian grain corridor negotiations—show that maritime chokepoints typically remain contested for extended periods once weaponised, with reversals typically requiring either military victory, diplomatic breakthroughs, or domestic political pressure that shifts governing priorities.

Traders should monitor three categories of catalyst through June. First, any official US statements on Iran negotiations or regional military objectives; second, economic data on global oil prices and shipping costs, which may force policy recalibration if sustained above politically tolerable thresholds; third, Congressional activity or public statements from Trump's cabinet regarding blockade sustainability. The NBC News reporting from the initial announcement remains the primary source; subsequent developments would likely surface through official Pentagon briefings or presidential statements rather than news leaks.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.