Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee | 0% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee Game Spread +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, guangzhou open, qualification: jeline vandromme vs carol young suh lee stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Jeline Vandromme and Carol Young Suh Lee in the Guangzhou Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 12:30AM E…
Methodology
We track Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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