Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti | 58% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 1% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of targu mures: sara sorribes tormo vs lucia bronzetti. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Sorribes Tormo and Lucia Bronzetti in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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