National Bank Open: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Camila Osorio

Platform comparison

Market context

The match between Lucrezia Stefanini and Camila Osorio is listed for the National Bank Open first round in Toronto, but the live market showing 0% YES suggests the price has already moved to reflect the result now being effectively known or the market being stale. The tournament’s own results page shows the fixture attached to 2 August and currently carries a completed-score format, which matters because these markets settle on who advances, not who was originally scheduled to play.[4][12]

On paper, Osorio entered as the stronger player: she was ranked WTA No. 56 versus Stefanini at No. 144, and the available form data also leaned her way. Flashscore notes Osorio had reached the second round in Montreal on her National Bank Open debut last year and had won 11 of 13 matches this season against opponents outside the top 100, while Stefanini had not recorded a tour-level win in 2026 and her only main-draw WTA 1000 win came against an unranked player in Rome in 2024.[1][5]

For traders, the key watchpoint is whether the official tournament result is finalised within the seven-day settlement window and whether any late correction affects the recorded winner. Because the market can also resolve 50-50 if the match is abandoned, not played, or delayed too long without a winner, the decisive inputs are the tournament’s match status and any updated scoreline from the event organiser, with live-score services serving only as secondary confirmation.[4][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Camila Osorio across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.