HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The HSBC Championships match between Raducanu and Rakhimova is scheduled for 12 June 2026 at 1:40PM ET, with the market settling on 19 June. The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in the match proceeding as scheduled or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline. Given the settlement window extends a full week beyond the match date, the market accounts for potential delays or postponements—a material consideration for grass-court tournaments where weather disruptions are routine.

Raducanu's recent form and injury history provide the primary historical lens. She has experienced multiple withdrawals and scheduling adjustments throughout her career, most notably at major tournaments. Rakhimova, ranked outside the top 100, offers limited comparable precedent for high-profile match cancellations. The resolution rules explicitly convert the market to 50-50 if the match is delayed beyond seven days without completion, creating a natural hedge against extended postponements.

Traders should monitor official HSBC Championships announcements regarding draw confirmation and any weather forecasts as mid-June approaches. Raducanu's fitness status in the weeks prior to the tournament will be critical; any reported injury concerns or withdrawal from preparatory events would signal elevated risk. The grass-court season typically runs without major scheduling disruptions, but individual player withdrawals remain common. Updates from the WTA or tournament organisers regarding either player's participation status represent the key catalyst for market movement away from the current consensus.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.