Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 69% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 22.5 | 68% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 Winner | 66% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang | 65% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 Winner | 61% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 60% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 21.5 | 44% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 21% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: yulia putintseva vs shuai zhang stands at 69% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Putintseva and Shuai Zhang in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This page reviews National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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