Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to iasi open, qualification: varvara lepchenko vs maia ilinca burcescu. This market refers to the tennis match between Varvara Lepchenko and Maia Ilinca Burcescu in the Iasi Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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