Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek

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Market context

Marta Kostyuk faces Iga Swiatek in the Roland Garros women's draw, with the Ukrainian ranked 19th and the Polish world number two entering as heavy favourite. The 30% crowd probability for Kostyuk reflects the substantial gap in seeding and recent form, though the match remains contingent on both players navigating their earlier rounds without injury or withdrawal. The scheduled 5:00 AM ET start time on 31 May positions this as a likely early-round encounter, potentially a second or third round fixture depending on draw placement.

Swiatek's clay-court dominance—she has won Roland Garros twice and holds a 5–1 head-to-head record against Kostyuk—anchors the market's confidence in her progression. Their most recent meeting came at the 2024 Rome Masters, where Swiatek prevailed in straight sets. Kostyuk's sole victory came on hard courts in 2022, suggesting the surface differential is material. Historical precedent indicates that when Swiatek reaches Roland Garros in competitive form, she advances through early rounds with consistency; she has not exited before the quarter-finals since 2020.

Traders should monitor injury updates for both players during the lead-up fortnight, particularly any reports from warm-up tournaments or training camps. Swiatek's participation in preparatory events will signal her physical readiness; any late withdrawal or reduced schedule would narrow the probability gap. The 7-day delay clause in the settlement window means weather disruptions or scheduling conflicts could trigger a 50-50 resolution, though Roland Garros rarely experiences such extended postponements in the modern era.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.