Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Irina Fetecau vs Tatiana Pieri Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, iasi open, qualification: irina fetecau vs tatiana pieri stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Irina Fetecau and Tatiana Pieri in the Iasi Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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