Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 91% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Match O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Match O/U 22.5 | 91% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Match O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Game Spread +/-6.5 | 50% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini | 19% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to adana: cagla buyukakcay vs lucrezia stefanini. This market refers to the tennis match between Cagla Buyukakcay and Lucrezia Stefanini in the Adana, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cagla Buyu…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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