World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The first few days of the 2026 World Cup have already produced a live reminder that penalties and officiating volatility can add up quickly, even before the tournament reaches its decisive stages. Fox Sports reports six red cards across the opening 27 games, while BBC notes that FIFA has also brought in a heavier VAR framework, including reviews for some second-yellow dismissals and fouls directly leading to a penalty. [1][2]

That matters because the market counts only penalties taken in normal time, stoppage time and extra time, not shootout kicks, so the path to a higher total is driven by match events rather than tie-break drama. Historically, World Cup penalty totals are lumpy: major tournaments can generate a steady stream of spot-kicks from handball, late tackles or VAR interventions, but the overall number still depends heavily on the number of matches completed and how strictly referees apply the expanded law set. [2][4][8]

For traders, the near-term catalysts are simple: the next wave of group-stage fixtures, any further disciplinary trend in officiating, and whether VAR continues to intervene on incidents that turn into penalties rather than just bookings or set-piece resets. BBC’s rundown of the tournament’s law changes suggests FIFA is willing to use technology more actively this year, which can lift the chance of both awarded and missed penalties if more kicks are given and more are saved or skied. [2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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