Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

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Market context

The Phoenix Mercury have already secured a 111-109 victory over the Indiana Fever in the WNBA game scheduled for June 24, with Kahleah Copper scoring 28 points and Caitlin Clark leaving the contest due to a back injury in the third quarter[1][3]. This result is now final, meaning the prediction market titled "Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever" has effectively resolved to "Phoenix Mercury" with a crowd-implied probability of 100% YES, as the game outcome is confirmed and no postponement or cancellation occurred[2][6].

Historically, 100% probabilities in settled sports markets reflect outcomes where the result is indisputable and the event has concluded, similar to how markets resolve immediately after a game ends with a clear winner[1]. In comparable cases, such as when a star player’s injury directly influences the final score, the market probability locks in once the official result is published, leaving no room for reversal unless the game is officially overturned by the league, which has not happened here[3][4].

Traders should monitor any official updates from the Indiana Fever regarding Caitlin Clark’s health status, as her injury was a key factor in the game’s outcome, and check the Fever’s upcoming schedule against Los Angeles on Saturday for context on team readiness[3]. While no new announcements have emerged since the postgame presser, where Coach Stephanie White noted uncertainty about the injury’s long-term impact, the final score remains the definitive catalyst for market resolution[4]. The market will not reopen unless the league cancels the game entirely, which is not the case, so the 100% YES probability stands as a factual certainty[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.