UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Bruno Silva faces Édgar Cháirez in a flyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6 June 2026. The 0% implied probability suggests minimal trading activity or complete absence of market participants backing Silva at present, which typically reflects either very limited liquidity or a consensus view that settlement remains genuinely uncertain until fight day.

Historical precedent for flyweight prelim bouts shows high volatility in fighter availability and late-notice cancellations. UFC preliminary fights experience cancellation or postponement rates substantially higher than main card fixtures, particularly when fighters compete at lower weight classes where injury turnovers are frequent. Silva's recent fight history and current injury status remain the primary determinants of whether this bout proceeds as scheduled. Cháirez, similarly, carries standard preliminary-level uncertainty regarding his readiness and weight-cut management heading into the event.

The settlement window closes 7 June 2026 at 03:59:59 UTC, allowing approximately 24 hours post-fight for official UFC declaration. Traders should monitor UFC official announcements for any fighter withdrawals, medical suspensions, or weight-miss complications in the week before the event. The 50-50 resolution clause for cancellations, postponements beyond 20 June, or no-contest rulings creates meaningful tail risk distinct from a straightforward binary outcome. Any official UFC statement regarding either fighter's status will be the critical catalyst moving this market from its current dormant state.

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.