Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5) | 99% |
| O/U 4.5 | 68% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score | 18% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 100%. More markets for the UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for August 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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