Independiente Medellín vs. CR Vasco da Gama

Platform comparison

Market context

Independiente Medellín’s meeting with Vasco da Gama is already past the scheduled kick-off window, so the market’s 0% YES reflects that the underlying match has either been completed or is no longer actionable within settlement. The most important change in the last 24–48 hours is therefore the transition from pre-match uncertainty to a live result state, rather than any fresh team news or line-up move.[1][3]

For context, this was a first-leg Copa Sudamericana knockout tie at the Atanasio Girardot in Medellín, and pre-match pricing elsewhere treated it as a relatively tight contest. Sports Mole’s model gave Independiente Medellín a 46.31% chance of victory, versus 27.89% for a draw and 25.81% for Vasco da Gama, which is broadly consistent with a market that would not usually sit at an extreme before kickoff.[4] That matters because a 0% YES now should be read as a time-and-status signal, not as evidence that either side was overwhelmingly unlikely beforehand.[4]

The practical catalysts for traders are post-match confirmation, any official score correction, and whether the event settled cleanly against the final CONMEBOL and broadcast timings. Match listings showed the game on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 5:00 pm local time in Medellín, while coverage pages also placed it around 10:00 pm UTC, so discrepancies in published kick-off labels are worth ignoring in favour of the final competition record.[2][3] If any late schedule shift, abandonment, or VAR-related administrative change surfaced, that would be the only material driver left for settlement now.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.