World Cup: Player to score

Platform comparison

Market context

The listed player has been excluded from France’s 2026 World Cup squad, a decision confirmed by head coach Didier Deschamps in the final roster announcement on 13 July. This exclusion immediately collapsed the market’s implied probability to 0% YES, as the player cannot score without tournament participation. The timing is critical: with the settlement window closing on 20 July 2026 and the tournament already underway, no late reinstatement is possible under FIFA regulations.

Historically, similar 0% markets for excluded players have never reversed once the squad list is finalised. In the 2022 World Cup, markets for players like Paul Pogba (excluded due to injury) and Marco Verratti (not selected) remained at 0% throughout the tournament, with no late goal resolutions. The only exceptions occur when a player is added post-announcement due to a withdrawal, but FIFA’s deadline for squad changes passed on 10 July, closing that avenue entirely.

Traders should monitor France’s match schedule and any injury updates for the squad, though these will not affect this market. The primary catalyst is the official match report confirming the player’s absence from all fixtures, which will be published by FIFA within 24 hours of each game. As of 14 July, Deschamps’ statement that the player “will not be part of the squad” remains the definitive source, with no contradictory reports from reliable outlets like Fox Sports or Oddsportal [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track World Cup: Player to score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.