Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
2% | 98% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
2% | 98% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| Qatar (-1.5) | 2% Qatar | 99% Switzerland |
| Switzerland (-1.5) | 57% Switzerland | 43% Qatar |
| Qatar (-2.5) | 0% Qatar | 100% Switzerland |
| Switzerland (-2.5) | 33% Switzerland | 68% Qatar |
| O/U 0.5 | 95% Over | 5% Under |
| O/U 1.5 | 80% Over | 21% Under |
Market context
Qatar will face Switzerland in a World Cup group-stage match on 13 June 2026, with the fixture scheduled for 3:00 PM ET. The 2% probability assigned to "more markets" reflects the crowd's assessment that additional betting markets for this specific game are unlikely to materialise before settlement closes at 19:00 UTC that day. This is a narrow technical question about market infrastructure rather than match outcome.
Historical precedent suggests World Cup matches typically see a standard suite of markets—full-time result, both teams to score, total goals, and first goalscorer—deployed well in advance of kickoff. Exceptional circumstances drive expansion: injury confirmations, late team news, or venue changes occasionally trigger derivative markets on specific conditions. The Qatar–Switzerland pairing carries no obvious catalyst for unusual market proliferation. Both nations qualified through standard qualifying rounds; neither faces documented squad crises or fixture complications that would necessitate conditional betting products.
The settlement window closes four hours before kickoff, which constrains the window for new market launches. Traders monitoring this should watch for official team sheets released 24 hours prior, which occasionally prompt bookmakers to introduce player-specific or condition-dependent markets if significant absences emerge. FIFA's fixture schedule remains stable, and no recent reporting suggests administrative changes to the match format or venue. The low probability reflects the baseline expectation that standard market coverage will suffice.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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