Japan vs. Sweden

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Japan face Sweden in a Group F game with the market now pricing Japan at **28%** to win, after recent group-stage results sharpened the picture on both sides. ESPN lists Japan around **+105** on the moneyline, with Sweden close behind at **+110** and the draw at **+250**, while FIFA’s match-centre confirms the fixture is set for 25 June, kick-off 7:00 pm local time.[1][3]

The current price sits below a true coin-flip, which is consistent with how prediction markets tend to react when neither side has established a clear group advantage. Japan’s recent World Cup form has included a draw in the opening round and a strong showing in the group, while Sweden arrive with a mixed record that leaves room for either a narrow win or a controlled draw; those patterns generally keep short-dated probabilities compressed rather than forcing a heavy favourite.[2][7][9]

For traders, the key catalysts are team news, rotation, and the live group table going into the final matchday. FIFA’s match page shows line-ups and live updates will be central on the day, and ESPN’s listing underlines that the game sits in a broadcast window that can move quickly once official squads are confirmed.[1][3] Any injury update, suspension, or need for one team to chase points rather than manage qualification could shift the 28% line materially in the final 24 hours.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Japan vs. Sweden on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.