IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

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Market context

Iran and New Zealand meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 15 June, with the 11% probability on exact-score outcomes reflecting the wide range of plausible final results across 90 minutes. The market's current pricing suggests traders view specific scorelines as unlikely events—a rational position given that exact scores distribute across dozens of possibilities, yet the 11% aggregate for all listed outcomes indicates modest confidence in any single result materialising.

Historical World Cup group-stage matches between nations at comparable competitive distance show exact-score prediction remains inherently difficult. Iran's recent tournament performances (2018 World Cup, 2022 World Cup) produced varied scorelines: they lost 1–0 to England in 2020 World Cup qualifying but also drew 0–0 and won 2–0 in other fixtures. New Zealand, a less frequent World Cup participant, drew 1–1 with Denmark in 2022 and lost 0–5 to France in 2010. The spread of outcomes across these precedents—ranging from 0–0 draws to 5–0 defeats—illustrates why exact-score markets typically price individual results between 2–8% unless one team is heavily favoured.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through early June, particularly any late withdrawals affecting either side's attacking or defensive depth. Iran's qualification campaign and New Zealand's playoff route will influence their tactical setup and available personnel. Weather conditions at the venue and any fixture rescheduling announcements could also shift match dynamics closer to the 15 June kickoff, though the settlement window's 16 June closure allows only minimal post-match processing time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.