Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 94% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 82% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 80% |
| O/U 38.5 | 79% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 69% |
| O/U 41.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| O/U 47.5 | 51% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Falcons vs. Saints | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| O/U 48.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 44% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 44% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Falcons vs. Saints: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 31% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 20% |
| O/U 60.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 18% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 62.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 15% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-13 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 14-20 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 21+ | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, falcons vs. saints stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 5 at 8:15PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If the g…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $537K.
Methodology
We track Falcons vs. Saints across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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