Knicks vs. 76ers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Knicks face the Philadelphia 76ers on 8 May at 7:00 PM ET in what appears to be a playoff matchup, with the settlement window closing at 11:00 PM the same evening. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 49% for a Knicks victory, reflecting near-parity in market expectations. This timing—late in the NBA season—suggests a high-stakes contest where both teams' playoff positioning or advancement could be at stake.

Historically, matchups between these Atlantic Division rivals have shown competitive balance, though recent regular-season records and playoff seeding heavily influence outcome probabilities. The 49% mark indicates traders view this as genuinely competitive rather than heavily favoured to either side. Context from the teams' performances in April and early May, including injury status and recent head-to-head results, typically shifts these probabilities materially in the days before playoff games.

Traders should monitor roster updates through 8 May, particularly regarding key player availability for both squads. Injury reports released in the 24 hours before tipoff often trigger significant probability shifts. Additionally, the specific playoff round and seeding implications matter considerably—a team fighting for survival plays differently from one with a secured position. Official NBA scheduling confirmations and any weather or venue-related disruptions would also affect settlement, though indoor playoff games rarely face postponement. Recent team form, bench depth, and coaching adjustments in the preceding series remain the primary drivers of movement in the final hours before tipoff.

Methodology

We track Knicks vs. 76ers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.