Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami travel to Philadelphia on 24 May for an Eastern Conference matchup with significant playoff implications as the season enters its final stretch. The 62% implied probability for a Miami victory reflects their stronger recent form, though no material news has shifted the odds materially in the past 48 hours. Both sides remain in contention for postseason positions, making this a fixture where motivation levels should remain high.

Miami's historical record against Philadelphia provides useful context for assessing the current odds. Over the past three seasons, Inter Miami have won roughly 40% of their meetings with the Union, with the remainder split between draws and Union victories. The 62% probability sits notably above that historical win rate, suggesting the market is pricing in Miami's current squad strength and recent momentum rather than relying on head-to-head precedent alone. Philadelphia's home record this season has been mixed—competitive but not dominant—which partially justifies the underdog positioning despite playing at their own ground.

Traders should monitor team news through the week, particularly injury updates for key attacking players on either side. Miami's depth in midfield and attack has been their advantage this season, whilst Philadelphia's defensive solidity remains their calling card. Weather conditions on match day may also influence play style; late May in Philadelphia typically brings warm, humid conditions that can favour sides with superior conditioning. Any late-week announcements regarding squad rotation or tactical adjustments from either manager could shift the probability, though the settlement window closes just after full-time, leaving minimal time for post-match analysis to affect odds.

Methodology

We track Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.