Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Columbus Crew will host Atlanta United FC in an MLS regular-season fixture on Sunday, 24 May 2026. The 93% implied probability reflects strong confidence in a Columbus victory, though the settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC that evening, leaving minimal buffer after the match concludes.

Columbus has established itself as a consistent performer in recent MLS seasons, whilst Atlanta's form has been more erratic. Historically, home advantage in MLS carries measurable weight—teams win roughly 48% of home matches compared to 27% away, with draws accounting for the remainder. Columbus's record at home over the past two seasons provides context for why traders are pricing this heavily toward a Crew win. Atlanta's away record against mid-table and upper-mid-table opposition has been particularly weak, which compounds the probability weighting.

Traders should monitor team news through the week leading to kickoff. Injury reports for key players—particularly Columbus's attacking options and Atlanta's defensive personnel—could shift the odds if significant absences emerge. Weather conditions in Columbus on match day may also influence play style expectations. Recent form updates from both clubs' preceding fixtures (likely scheduled for 17–18 May) will be the final catalyst before settlement. Any late tactical announcements or lineup surprises announced within hours of kickoff could trigger last-minute trading activity, though the 93% probability suggests the market has already priced in baseline expectations for a home win.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.