San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Giants travel to Denver on 31 May for an afternoon fixture against the Rockies, with the 79% implied probability favouring San Francisco. This reflects the Giants' superior record and roster depth, though the Rockies' home-field advantage at Coors Field—historically one of baseball's most hitter-friendly parks—introduces meaningful variance. The settlement window extends to 7 June, allowing for postponements or rescheduling without market closure.

Historical context shows that visiting teams in this matchup have won roughly 45% of games over the past three seasons, slightly below the league-wide road win rate of 48%. The Rockies' home record typically sits 4–6 percentage points above their road performance, a gap larger than most franchises due to altitude effects on ball flight. At 79%, the current probability suggests the market is pricing the Giants' talent advantage whilst acknowledging Denver's environmental edge—a reasonable calibration given recent head-to-head splits.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, which typically confirm 24–48 hours before game time. Injury reports for key position players, particularly the Giants' outfield depth and the Rockies' catching situation, could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather forecasts for Denver—specifically wind direction and temperature—merit attention, as conditions at Coors Field materially affect run-scoring expectations. Recent form matters less than usual in May, but any late roster moves or bullpen availability announcements could trigger repricing closer to first pitch.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.