New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees host Cleveland on 9 June at 6:40 PM ET in a regular-season matchup with the settlement window extending to mid-June. The 53% crowd probability favours New York, reflecting their status as the higher-seeded team in the AL East, though the Guardians remain competitive in the Central Division. Recent form matters considerably here: as of early June, the Yankees typically carry stronger offensive depth and home-field advantage, both measurable factors in head-to-head pricing.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Yankees have won roughly 55–60% of regular-season contests over the past decade, though individual games deviate sharply from that baseline. Cleveland's pitching staff has periodically posed problems for New York's lineup, particularly when their ace takes the mound. The current 53% probability sits near the historical centre of gravity, suggesting the market has priced in standard home-field advantage without overweighting either team's recent performance swings.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements in the 48 hours before first pitch, as rotation changes or injury updates can shift the implied probability meaningfully. Weather conditions at Yankee Stadium—wind direction and temperature affect fly-ball outcomes—warrant checking forecasts closer to game time. Any late-breaking roster moves, particularly concerning key position players or relief arms, will influence how the probability adjusts. The settlement window's extension to 22:40 UTC on 16 June accounts for potential postponements, though June weather delays in New York are less common than spring scheduling disruptions.

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.