New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies beat the New York Mets 15-3 in the scheduled June 20 game, so the market should already be settled in favour of Philadelphia rather than carrying a live **100% YES** price on the Mets side.[1][3] ESPN’s final score page and Fox Sports’ boxscore both show a completed result, with the Phillies listed as the winners.[1][3]

That result fits the recent pattern in this rivalry: Philadelphia’s offence produced a decisive margin, with Kyle Schwarber hitting three home runs and Bryce Harper completing the cycle in the rout.[3] For traders reading the market as a “today’s outlook” signal, a maximum YES price is only meaningful if the underlying event is still unresolved; once a final MLB result is posted, the resolution source is the completed official game record rather than in-game sentiment.[1][3]

The main thing to watch now is not line movement but whether the market is still awaiting formal settlement because of delayed status checks, as the description allows postponements to remain open until a game is completed and treats cancellations or ties differently.[8] MLB’s game and video pages already reflect the June 20 matchup as finished, so any remaining uncertainty would more likely be administrative than sporting.[4][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.