New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Mets travel to Miami for a 1:40 PM ET start on 24 May, with the crowd currently pricing a Mets victory at 47 per cent. Recent form has shifted the narrative: the Mets have won four of their last six games, whilst the Marlins have dropped five of their past seven, creating a modest momentum advantage for New York heading into this National League East matchup.

Historical performance between these clubs provides context for interpreting the current probability. Over the past three seasons, the Mets hold a 19–14 record against Miami, suggesting a structural edge in head-to-head play. However, the Marlins' home field at loanDepot park has historically been a leveller, with Miami posting a .520 win percentage at home since 2022. The 47 per cent Mets probability reflects this tension—a visiting team with better recent form facing a home side with a solid track record in its own stadium.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, which typically confirm 24–48 hours before game time. Injury reports from both clubs remain fluid through late May, particularly regarding position players in the Mets' lineup. Weather conditions in Miami—afternoon games frequently see temperature and humidity fluctuations—can influence ballpark dynamics and bullpen usage patterns. The settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing for postponement resolution should weather force a delay.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.