New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Mets travel to Miami for a 4:10 PM ET fixture on 23 May against the Marlins, with the market currently pricing a Mets victory at 8 per cent. This represents a significant underdog positioning for New York, suggesting the Marlins are favoured at roughly 92 per cent implied probability. The settlement window extends to 30 May, allowing for fixture postponements common in the Miami climate during late May.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Mets have held a competitive edge in recent seasons, though home-field advantage in Miami carries material weight in regular-season outcomes. The Marlins' home record typically outperforms their away record by 3–5 percentage points, a pattern consistent across their recent campaigns. At 8 per cent, the current probability suggests either the Mets are facing significant roster disadvantages or the Marlins' recent form has shifted materially in their favour.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, which typically release 24–48 hours before fixture time. Injury reports for key position players, particularly any late-breaking absences from either lineup, will influence the probability substantially. Weather conditions in Miami—specifically wind direction and temperature affecting ball carry—occasionally shift outcomes in low-scoring affairs. Recent team performance trends, including winning streaks or bullpen fatigue, should be cross-referenced against the implied 92 per cent Marlins probability to identify whether the market has overweighted home-field advantage or underestimated current form differentials.

Methodology

We track New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.